Thoroughbred Pedigree - Key Insight

The identification of stallions from the past who are progenitors of superior Stamina influence and have a prolific impact on the pedigrees of all-time great performers.

Thoroughbred Pedigree - Methodology

I perform a comprehensive analysis of a pedigree with a focus on 3 independent metrics I have identified as most meaningful to top performance. I pay particular attention to the Dam's contribution and the synergistic and complementary aspects the sire and dam bring to the foal.

Understanding the complex patterns of inherited stamina adds tremendous value by identifying hidden potential or avoiding the expense of an over-hyped pedigree.

Since this work is probabilistic in nature, there are no guarantees. But there are meaningful patterns in the pedigrees of all-time greats in North America and Europe that strongly suggest replication of these patterns can improve the probability of inheriting the superior Stamina that enables top performance.

Dosage

Although I do not use Dosage data directly as it applies to the individual horse under evaluation, (i.e. Dosage Profile, Dosage Index, Center of Distribution), I do believe it important to recognize stallions with Chef-de-Race designation in a pedigree.  Steve Miller continues the work of Dr. Steve Roman.

Nicks

Nicks play no role in my evaluation of a pedigree. I reject the notion of an affinity of one sire line for another.

One of the most prolific sire lines in modern history includes Nearco, Neartic, Northern Dancer and his sons Nijinsky, Nureyev, Danzig and his son Danehill, and Sadlers Wells and his son and grandson, Galileo and Frankel, respectively. Other prolific lines include Nearco, Nashrullah and his sons and the line of Native Dancer, Raise a Native, Mr. Prospector and Fappiano.  

Without exception, I can justify the inclusion of each successive sire on these lines on the basis of the stamina influence from the female side of their pedigree. I do not need to resort to the belief that "Nicks" played any role in making these stallions successful. That is not to say that a successful stallion depends exclusively on his female family. Breeding quality mares is crucial. But a strong female family coupled with top performance as a racehorse offers a robust explanation for success as a stallion.

So, my contention is that the whole notion of sire line affinity is really an illusion that masks the significant impact of the female family.

To me, the generous interpretation is to view Nick ratings as a crude tool that uses the false notion of "sire line affinity" as a proxy for the female side of the pedigree. In other words, the "affinity" would actually be between the female families of the respective stallions.

A Nick rating could, in principle, be of limited use as a proxy for the female families of the respective stallions if there was direct comparison of the actual stallion with the actual broodmare sire. (notwithstanding the dismissal of 25% of the pedigree)

Of course, if sufficient data existed to produce statistically meaningful results under those conditions, any "Nick" would be obvious and the rating would offer no insight and little value to the user.

When there is insufficient data, Nick ratings are generated from horses other than the actual stallion or broodmare sire. This technique implies a claim that offspring inherit something exclusive to the male line that can be relied upon as a valid proxy for the sire or broodmare sire.

Since I account for prolific sire lines in terms of the female side of the pedigree, I reject the implied claim of inheritance exclusive to the tail-male line that would justify use of horses other than the actual sire and broodmare sire to generate a Nick rating.