Thoroughbred Pedigree Research Stats

To identify pedigree patterns consistent with superior Stamina influence and establish metrics for top performance, I evaluated the pedigrees of all-time great performers. The criteria for inclusion is a horse who won Horse of the Year and is a member of the Hall of Fame with a few exceptions.

The list begins in the early 20th century and includes 74 horses. (see “Greats” page for list of horses)

I also wanted to compare the results of my analysis of this group with the results of an analysis from all horses who started in the Kentucky Derby from 2021 - 2023. This group includes 57 horses.

It should be noted that since I am evaluating all-time greats, it was necessary to identify a group of horses for comparison that have a reasonable expectation to attain all-time great status. I chose Kentucky Derby starters because those horses had to display a degree of talent and resiliency to make it to the Derby. And, of course, many all-time greats emerged from that race.

My analysis is focused on identifying superior Stamina influence in a pedigree. I also have a Rating System that translates my analysis into 3 letter grades - "B", "A", "A+".

A horse either meets the benchmark standards or they do not. If they do, then I can make a reasonable differentiation among grades based on comparing their pedigree to data derived from all-time greats.

U.S. Evaluation

My analysis of all-time greats was able to generate a rating for 62 of 74 horses, about an 84% capture rate. 43 of the 62 horses, about 69%, rated "A" or better.

My analysis of all Kentucky Derby starters from 2021 - 2023 was able to generate a rating for 15 of 57 horses, about a 26% capture rate. 11 of the 15 horses, about 73%, rated "A" or better.

The results show that all-time great performers have over a 3X higher occurrence of the pedigree attributes that indicate superior Stamina influence than Kentucky Derby starters. An "A" Rating or better occurs at about the same rate among groups.

International Evaluation

I also compiled a relatively short list of 25 international all-time great performers, mostly from Europe. (see “Greats” page for list of horses)

I wanted to compare that group to all starters in the Epsom Derby from 2021 - 2023.

My analysis of international all-time greats was able to generate a rating for 21 of 25 horses, an 84% capture rate. 20 of the 21 horses, about 95%, rated "A" or better.

My analysis of all Epsom Derby starters from 2021 - 2023 was able to generate a rating for 19 of 42 horses, about a 45% capture rate. 15 of the 19 horses, about 78%, rated "A" or better.

The results show that all-time great performers internationally have nearly a 2X higher occurrence of the pedigree attributes that indicate superior Stamina influence than Epsom Derby starters. An "A" rating or better occurs at about a 21% higher rate among all-time greats.