Kentucky Derby 2024 Selections

My intention here is to simply focus on the 5 horses I feel have the highest probability of winning the race. To read my opinion on most contenders see the April Rankings. I would like to mention that Endlessly was terrible in his 4/20 work and I would be surprised if he starts in the Derby. The pace will most likely come from Fierceness, Track Phantom, Dornoch, Just a Touch and Encino. I would not be surprised to see any of those giving Fierceness some real pace competition deep into the race.

If I had to go outside my top five I would include Encino and Just Steel. The dam of Encino is out of Bedazzle, the dam of Street Sense. And Just Steel has more stamina influence in his pedigree than most starters and he is the iron horse (with some carbon added) of this field.

Just a Touch has been getting a lot of attention and ran a very good race in the Blue Grass. I’ve heard opinions that Mage and Justify each won the Derby off just 3 starts so that issue has been minimized. The problem from my perspective is not so much the 3 starts as the stamina influence in his pedigree does not seem as strong as those Derby winners.

Main Contenders

Sierra Leone - Rock solid penultimate work.

Catching Freedom - With 6 weeks between races his penultimate work was critically important. Went in company with Castlewarden, a 4 yo full sib to Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River. Went 5f in 1:00.80 galloping out 6f in 1:13.20 and 7f in 1:26.20. Mission accomplished.

Honor Marie - He is the pedigree play. I have questioned Beckman’s training approach as too soft and then I heard this horse would only have 3 works with 6 weeks between starts. This seemed to confirm my concerns that this horse would not be at his peak. Well, his final work was a 5f breeze in company with a stakes-placed sprinter and he was on top of his workmate right from the get-go. It was astonishing that a horse that shows no tactical speed in his races could match strides with a sprinter right from the start under no urging and proceed to leave his workmate in the dust. The strong time of 5f in 59.20 galloping out 6f in 1:12.60 should prime him for a forward move from his last race.

Fierceness - His penultimate work strikes me as an optical illusion somewhat like the Florida Derby. In both cases he had little competition. His workmate was Agate Road, a horse who has done his best running on turf. Agate Road has little natural speed and is currently way off his best form so he was a sacrificial lamb not capable of offering any meaningful resistance. If Pletcher is correct and this horse was compromised in the Holy Bull because of a little adversity encountered at the start, this horse’s competitive spirit is very much an open question. If any horse ever had an excuse at the start of a race it was Seattle Slew in the 1977 Derby. Fierceness backers may want to view the start of that race to see what competitive spirit looks like.

Forever Young - I have no idea what to make of his penultimate work. 4f in 55.20 going out 6f in 1:19.60 with a final quarter in 24.40. What??? Maybe his last work will make sense to the Western mind.

Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - April

Where is the pace coming from in this Derby?

Any horse that has shown solid early pace is compromised with the exception of Track Phantom and he has a 6 week gap to race day with a trainer who tends toward light works.

Hades may not get into the race. No More Time is taking an 8 week vacation. Dornoch may be going in the wrong direction as a result of inadequate preparation for his 3 year old debut and Just a Touch has 1 win to his credit sprinting over a sloppy track.

I have ranked Fierceness 4th because I think he may be vulnerable at the Derby distance. But if he gets out of the gate relatively clean and the pace is moderate, the distance should be a non-issue.

1) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. This horse may not be very tactical but he is a very efficient mover.

2) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Consistent performer who will not lose this race because he lacks fitness. See Louisiana Derby Recap

3) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance and loves the track. He should move forward but with 6 weeks between starts, no confidence as yet that Beckman will train him aggressively enough to have him at his peak.

4) Fierceness - See Florida Derby Recap

5) Forever Young - This horse, like Hades, has a nice synergy between sire and dam. Undefeated colt made nice progression in UAE Derby but has to buck the Dubai trend.

6) Endlessly - Rock solid stamina oriented pedigree. This horse has a solid foundation with four races as a 2 year old, all on turf at a mile. Although he has had only two prep races, the fact that his 3 year old debut was made on a synthetic surface in a non-graded stakes race is in no way equivalent to the negative trend these days of two prep races with a first start preceded by a light breeze schedule in preparation for a graded stakes race going 2 turns on dirt. It’s common knowledge that some horses that excel on a synthetic surface take to the Churchill dirt. If he does he could win at a price.

7) Hades - He is much better than his Florida Derby performance. Lopez had to check a bit going into the first turn but no major trouble. He was locked onto the rail around the turn and may have resented the kickback. Entered in the Lexington in an attempt to qualify for Derby. If he wins impressively he could be a menacing pace presence in Derby.

8) Track Phantom - Tactical speed and consistent performer. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance.

9) Stronghold - Gutsy win in Santa Anita Derby. This horse is competitive and has given a good account of himself against some talented runners from the Baffert barn. He should be dead fit for the Derby. Dam placed in Santa Anita Oaks but on balance do not see enough stamina infuence in pedigree to recommend.

10) Resilience - This horse gave a very good account of himself jumping into the Risen Star off a maiden win. His performance in the Wood continues to flatter Fair Grounds form. He will be fit for Derby and he has some pedigree power but I don’t see enough stamina influence in pedigree to recommend.

11) Just Steel - Aptly named, he has started 11 times. Talk about old school: Hail to the Coach! This guy has more stamina influence than a lot of these and we know fitness is not an issue.

12) Just a Touch - His pedigree looks like a haphazard attempt to emphasize inbreeding with no particular design in mind. Maybe the hope was that something might click. By Justify out of a Tapit mare this pedigree would typically elicit praise like “regally bred”. While he does have some pedigree power and his dam is a graded stakes winner, I don’t see enough stamina influence. Couple that with being so lightly raced and he is hard to recommend.

13) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects.

14) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. Given his performance in the Blue Grass, he appears to be another victim of inadequate preparation for a 3 year old debut in a 2 turn, graded stakes race on dirt.

15) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. The Tampa Bay Derby was a paid workout being run with an inverted pace much like a turf race. That can be a very good fitness builder but since he will be training up to the Derby I give him little chance.

16) Domestic Product - Nothing outstanding in his pedigree that grabs my attention but this horse is competitive. Pace in Tampa Bay Derby favored the tactical, high quality, No More Time yet this horse ran him down. With what appears to be more aggressive training methods this year, I suspected Chad Brown may be making a fundamental change in his approach. Then he decides to train this horse up to the race. Change? Maybe not.

Florida Derby 2024 Recap

Here is a pithy summation of the performance of Fierceness:

Colt with absolute Brilliance sets moderate fractions on an uncontested lead with his main competitor never involved and wins with devastating ease.

If you examine the fractions from the Ghostzapper Stakes for older horses, which was run as race 7, and the Gulfstream Park Oaks for 3 year old fillies, which was the last dirt race before the Florida Derby and run as race 11, it is evident that the track was quicker as the day progressed. The speed held in the Ghostzapper and although Power Squeeze ran down Ways and Means, the latter was part of the pace most of the race and held well.

All that is to say that the pace in both of these races was reasonable and not unrealistically fast.

The 3/4 time in the Ghostzapper was 1:12.41 and the same split in the Oaks was 1:11.66. This suggests the track was getting faster through the day.

Fierceness ran a 3/4 split in 1.11.31 which is reasonable when compared to the Oaks.

The main competition for Fierceness was not the talented Hades, who after a shaky start never ran a lick, but Catalytic. Catalytic was the main pace rival and ran the best race of all other competitors. Catalytic has one win to his credit and came into this race with one 6 furlong prep in which he finished 2nd coming from off the pace. Not exactly premium competition.

I have compared Fierceness to Life is Good. I think he has that level of Brilliance. And like Life is Good, I suspect Fierceness will not be at his best at Classic distances. But even if an enormous talent is not at their best under specific conditions, it does not necessarily follow that they cannot win.

Does anyone doubt that Life is Good wins the Breeders Cup Classic if anyone other than Flightline is chasing him?

This final prep race will serve Fierceness well. And if he encounters a moderate pace in the Derby and is tactical enough to be in the race from the opening bell, watch out.

But this race was not a test. This race was a brilliant workout under ideal conditions with no accomplished competitor eyeballing Fierceness under a taxing pace.

It is unlikely the conditions in the Florida Derby will hold in his next race.

Louisiana Derby 2024 Recap

This race was a solid final prep for both Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. In evaluating the race I wanted to see how it measured up to the New Orleans Classic, a One and One Eighth mile race for older horses earlier on the card.

The NOC was won by Red Route One. Although he was not a top-tier 3 year old, he did give a decent account of himself in the Arkansas Derby and Preakness last year.

To have some point of comparison between the NOC and Louisiana Derby I wanted to compare the final times of each race. To do that I decided to extrapolate an additional sixteenth of a mile from the time it took Red Route One to run his final eighth of a mile.

The final eighth in the NOC was run in 12.97 seconds. Red Route One was 2.5 lengths behind at the eighth pole. That approximates a final eighth run in 12.47 seconds by Red Route One with an average of 6.235 seconds per sixteenth of a mile. The NOC was run in 1:49.14. Adding 6.235 seconds to that time yields an extrapolated time of 1:55.375 for the NOC. The Louisiana Derby was run in 1:56.16.

The extrapolated time of the NOC was faster by 0.785 seconds, which equates to approximately 3.5 to 4 lengths. Considering Red Route One saved all the ground getting a rail trip around the far turn and both Honor Marie and Catching Freedom were wide on the far turn and spun 7 and 8 paths wide entering the stretch, both these horses gave a solid performance that stands up to comparison with older stakes horses on the card.

In evaluating the performance of Catching Freedom against Honor Marie I would point out that Catching Freedom had 2 advantages. First, I believe he had a fitness advantage. He has been in constant training since his debut October 1st. Honor Marie, by comparison, was coming off an 84 day layoff prior to the Risen Star and given his sparse training regimen, could in no way have been adequately prepared for that race. Second, Catching Freedom had Flavian Prat. If anyone thinks that made no difference watch him in the stretch drive vs Ben Curtis and tell me who you would want riding your horse.

Going forward Catching Freedom looks like a genuine Derby horse. He has a stamina oriented pedigree, is a consistent performer and he should be dead fit by staying in training from his 2 year old campaign thereby avoiding the 2 race Derby prep schedule compromising many of his competitors.

Honor Marie has the pedigree to run all day and likes the Churchill surface. He has a right to move forward but will he? With 6 weeks to the Derby, I have yet to see evidence that his trainer will be aggressive enough with his training to get him 100% fit for the Derby.

Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - March

This may be the year for Chad Brown.

He is the only trainer who seems to be working his 2 main contenders, Sierra Leone and Domestic Product, aggressively. It should be noted that even though Sierra Leone is only having 2 prep races, he was never really taken out of training after the Remsen. Only 22 days after that race he put in a solid 4 furlong breeze and was training straight through his debut in the Risen Star.

My top 2 horses strictly from a pedigree perspective are Honor Marie and Dornoch. But both are only having 2 preps and neither had been trained to ensure 100% fitness for their 3 year old debut.

Minimum performance standard for inclusion is win going 2 turns against winners.

1) Hades - There is a nice synergy between his sire and his tail-female line. This horse reminds me of Maximum Security with his running style, movement and the path he is taking to the Derby.

2) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. This horse may not be very tactical but he is a very efficient mover.

3) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance. Non-threatening 5th in Risen Star but finished with interest. Came into the toughest test of his career from a nearly 3 month layoff going 9 furlongs with just 6 works, none longer than 5 furlongs. Dubious preparation to say the least. I decided to drop him from the top position for now. Because of his running style, the lack of proper preparation for his debut may not exact the toll it could on a more tactical runner. But I don’t see any evidence as yet that Beckman will be more aggressive with his training.

4) Forever Young - This horse, like Hades, has a nice synergy between sire and dam. That was a gutsy win for this undefeated colt in the Saudi Derby. (notwithstanding hanging on his left lead) But if he was not trained properly after a nearly 2.5 month layoff he could regress after that hard effort.

5) Fierceness - Brilliance. Speed, athleticism and an efficient stride can take a horse a long way on dirt. Do not believe he was adequately prepared for the tiring surface he encountered in the Holy Bull. At his best he reminds me of Life is Good and even seems to move like him on the track. But perhaps, like Life is Good, who was absolutely brilliant up to a mile, he may have problems as the distances increase. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree and 2nd dam is the dam of Wood winner Outwork. In spite of this don’t see enough stamina influence on bottom of pedigree for him to be at his best at classic distance.

6) Domestic Product - Nothing outstanding in his pedigree that grabs my attention but this horse is competitive. Pace in Tampa Bay Derby favored the tactical, high quality, No More Time yet this horse ran him down. With Chad Brown scheduling another prep, this horse won’t lose the Derby because he has been compromised by his training.

7) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. I decided to drop this horse from #2 after his 3 year old debut. The lack of adequate preparation for that race will most likely compromise his Derby chances.

8) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. The Tampa Bay Derby was a paid workout being run with an inverted pace much like a turf race. That can be a very good fitness builder but word is that he will train up to the Derby. I’m going to drop him from #4 until his schedule is confirmed.

9) Agate Road - Stamina and plenty of foundation. Good effort in his first dirt try in Sam F. Davis. Had a fast pace to close into but could not touch winner. I decided to drop this horse down from #5 after his last workout. After holding his own working with Fierceness February 23rd, he was clearly outworked by maiden winner Antiquarian.

10) Track Phantom - Brilliance but can he sit off a horse? Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance. Solid performance in Risen Star.

11) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Workmanlike win in Smarty Jones and solid performance in Risen Star.

12) Timberlake - Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree with quality in tail-female line. Another horse taking the 2 prep route to the Derby. He had 5 published works for his Rebel debut, none longer than 5 furlongs and no gate drills. Inadequate preparation leads to an uninspired performance.

13) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects. Seems like the rail was the place to be on the muddy sealed surface for the Southwest and he got a perfect trip around the track.

14) Tuscan Sky - Stamina and tactical speed. Impressive win in the slop vs Nash in essentially a N1x match race. One to watch.

Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - February

Minimum performance standard for inclusion is win going 2 turns against winners.

1) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance. Non-threatening 5th in Risen Star but finished with interest. Came into the toughest test of his career from a nearly 3 month layoff going 9 furlongs with just 6 works, none longer than 5 furlongs. Dubious preparation to say the least.

2) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. Gutsy win in Remsen.

3) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. My pedigree research shows that all-time great performers that are not captured by my system, (about 19%), are almost always by top stallions.

4) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. Solid pace in Sam F. Davis and he made all the running. Dispensed with G3 winner West Saratoga and then held off a fast closing but non-threating Agate Road.

5) Agate Road - Stamina and plenty of foundation. Good effort in his first dirt try in Sam F. Davis. Had a fast pace to close into but could not touch winner.

6) Fierceness - Brilliance. Speed, athleticism and an efficient stride can take a horse a long way on dirt. Do not believe he was adequately prepared for the tiring surface he encountered in the Holy Bull. At his best he reminds me of Life is Good and even seems to move like him on the track. But perhaps, like Life is Good, who was absolutely brilliant up to a mile, he may have problems as the distances increase. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree and 2nd dam is the dam of Wood winner Outwork. In spite of this don’t see enough stamina influence on bottom of pedigree for him to be at his best at classic distance.

7) Track Phantom - Brilliance but can he sit off a horse? Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance. Solid performance in Risen Star.

8) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Workmanlike win in Smarty Jones and solid performance in Risen Star.

9) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects. Seems like the rail was the place to be on the muddy sealed surface for the Southwest and he got a perfect trip around the track.

10) Tuscan Sky - Stamina and tactical speed. Impressive win in the slop vs Nash in essentially a N1x match race. One to watch.

The mistake that Bob Baffert does not make

Many people may take exception to the training methods Bob Baffert employs to prepare his horses for the rigors of the Triple Crown.

But Baffert is clear that the goal of his stable is to win Triple Crown races. If a colt has the talent, competitive spirit and a strong physical constitution that thrives on work, he will perform well in Baffert’s program.

Baffert, to his credit, does not make the mistake of bringing a short horse into a Derby prep race. His training methods ensure that his horse is 100% physically prepared to meet the specific demands of each race. And Baffert knows the physical demands of racing on dirt require supreme fitness.

He seems to understand something, implicitly or explicitly, that no other trainer seems to grasp. A three year old is a physically immature, rapidly developing horse. Vigorous training accelerates that development. And here is the key: 100% fitness in mid Winter is not 100% fitness in early Spring. In other words, you can have a horse 100% fit early in their three year old campaign but because of rapid growth and development that same level of fitness will not be adequate as his physical development proceeds. So, to not have a young three year old 100% ready for each race on the Derby prep schedule is akin to malpractice because they cannot peak too soon.

Most every other trainer seems to prepare their horses for the Derby as though they were already physically mature horses who should not be trained hard lest they peak too early. But that notion does not apply to a rapidly developing horse whose peak condition maximum naturally goes higher as he matures.

The two latest victims of these misguided training methods that I’ve noticed are Fierceness, trained by T. Pletcher and Honor Marie, trained by W. Beckman.

Fierceness encountered trouble at the break of the Holy Bull but overcame adversity by demonstrating competitive spirit, getting into the race and making the lead. But what he could not overcome was inadequate preparation for a tiring racing surface. Fierceness was brought into that race off seven works, none over 5 furlongs and not one work from the gate after a three month layoff.

Honor Marie had six works preparing for the most difficult test of his career in the Risen Star, none over 5 furlongs and not one work from the gate for a 9 furlong race after a nearly three month layoff.

Can anyone imagine Baffert preparing a horse like this?

For those that disagree with Baffert’s methods and feel it is unnecessary to train a young three year old that hard I would suggest reading what Steve Haskin has mentioned in his Derby Dozen columns for years. Old school trainers would start their Derby horses in sprint races to sharpen their speed.

If a trainer is uncomfortable with undertaking a training regimen necessary to have a horse 100% fit for a two turn, graded stakes Derby prep race in the first start of their three year old campaign, please consider the sage wisdom cited by Steve Haskin.

Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - January

Minimum performance standard for inclusion is win going 2 turns against winners.

1) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance.

2) Wynstock - Stamina and tactical speed. Baffert?

3) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. Gutsy win in Remsen.

4) Snead - Stamina. Dam full sib to Bernardini. Good 2nd to Track Phantom in Gun Runner.

5) Fierceness - Brilliance. Speed, athleticism and an efficient stride can take a horse a long way on dirt. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree and 2nd dam is the dam of Wood winner Outwork. In spite of this don’t see enough stamina influence on bottom of pedigree for him to be at his best at classic distance.

6) Track Phantom - Brilliance but can he sit off a horse? Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance.

7) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Workmanlike win in Smarty Jones although late with lead change and unfocused in stretch.

Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile: Honor Marie

Honor Marie has a strong stamina-oriented pedigree primarily from his 2nd dam, Crystal Crossing and inbreeding 5X4 to Crimson Saint.

Crystal Crossing produced English Classic winner Rule of War who won the 2004 St. Leger Stakes. Honor Marie’s dam, Dame Marie, was graded stakes placed on the turf. His sire, Honor Code, has a pedigree that is synergistic and complimentary to his dam.

Honor Marie has the running style of a closer. This is not a running style that is typically conducive to consistent success on a dirt track. His lack of tactical speed can present obvious problems in a race with 19 other horses. But Honor Marie is not a plodder and has shown a nice turn-of-foot in his races. He did break his maiden going 6 furlongs with a furious late rally.

He was very impressive in his victory in the KY Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs going 1 1/16 miles. Not only did he show a burst of speed inside the 3/8 pole to put himself into contention at the top of the stretch, but his balance and flawless lead change showed his athleticism. His gallop-out was also noteworthy and very impressive.

This horse appears to have the stamina that will enable him to run all day so classic distances should only allow him to gain separation from his competition. The fact that he has had 3 solid races as a 2 year old, 2 of them sprints, should set him up well to continue his development toward the Derby.