Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - February

Minimum performance standard for inclusion is win going 2 turns against winners.

1) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance. Non-threatening 5th in Risen Star but finished with interest. Came into the toughest test of his career from a nearly 3 month layoff going 9 furlongs with just 6 works, none longer than 5 furlongs. Dubious preparation to say the least.

2) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. Gutsy win in Remsen.

3) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. My pedigree research shows that all-time great performers that are not captured by my system, (about 19%), are almost always by top stallions.

4) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. Solid pace in Sam F. Davis and he made all the running. Dispensed with G3 winner West Saratoga and then held off a fast closing but non-threating Agate Road.

5) Agate Road - Stamina and plenty of foundation. Good effort in his first dirt try in Sam F. Davis. Had a fast pace to close into but could not touch winner.

6) Fierceness - Brilliance. Speed, athleticism and an efficient stride can take a horse a long way on dirt. Do not believe he was adequately prepared for the tiring surface he encountered in the Holy Bull. At his best he reminds me of Life is Good and even seems to move like him on the track. But perhaps, like Life is Good, who was absolutely brilliant up to a mile, he may have problems as the distances increase. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree and 2nd dam is the dam of Wood winner Outwork. In spite of this don’t see enough stamina influence on bottom of pedigree for him to be at his best at classic distance.

7) Track Phantom - Brilliance but can he sit off a horse? Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance. Solid performance in Risen Star.

8) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Workmanlike win in Smarty Jones and solid performance in Risen Star.

9) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects. Seems like the rail was the place to be on the muddy sealed surface for the Southwest and he got a perfect trip around the track.

10) Tuscan Sky - Stamina and tactical speed. Impressive win in the slop vs Nash in essentially a N1x match race. One to watch.