Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - March

This may be the year for Chad Brown.

He is the only trainer who seems to be working his 2 main contenders, Sierra Leone and Domestic Product, aggressively. It should be noted that even though Sierra Leone is only having 2 prep races, he was never really taken out of training after the Remsen. Only 22 days after that race he put in a solid 4 furlong breeze and was training straight through his debut in the Risen Star.

My top 2 horses strictly from a pedigree perspective are Honor Marie and Dornoch. But both are only having 2 preps and neither had been trained to ensure 100% fitness for their 3 year old debut.

Minimum performance standard for inclusion is win going 2 turns against winners.

1) Hades - There is a nice synergy between his sire and his tail-female line. This horse reminds me of Maximum Security with his running style, movement and the path he is taking to the Derby.

2) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. This horse may not be very tactical but he is a very efficient mover.

3) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance. Non-threatening 5th in Risen Star but finished with interest. Came into the toughest test of his career from a nearly 3 month layoff going 9 furlongs with just 6 works, none longer than 5 furlongs. Dubious preparation to say the least. I decided to drop him from the top position for now. Because of his running style, the lack of proper preparation for his debut may not exact the toll it could on a more tactical runner. But I don’t see any evidence as yet that Beckman will be more aggressive with his training.

4) Forever Young - This horse, like Hades, has a nice synergy between sire and dam. That was a gutsy win for this undefeated colt in the Saudi Derby. (notwithstanding hanging on his left lead) But if he was not trained properly after a nearly 2.5 month layoff he could regress after that hard effort.

5) Fierceness - Brilliance. Speed, athleticism and an efficient stride can take a horse a long way on dirt. Do not believe he was adequately prepared for the tiring surface he encountered in the Holy Bull. At his best he reminds me of Life is Good and even seems to move like him on the track. But perhaps, like Life is Good, who was absolutely brilliant up to a mile, he may have problems as the distances increase. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree and 2nd dam is the dam of Wood winner Outwork. In spite of this don’t see enough stamina influence on bottom of pedigree for him to be at his best at classic distance.

6) Domestic Product - Nothing outstanding in his pedigree that grabs my attention but this horse is competitive. Pace in Tampa Bay Derby favored the tactical, high quality, No More Time yet this horse ran him down. With Chad Brown scheduling another prep, this horse won’t lose the Derby because he has been compromised by his training.

7) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. I decided to drop this horse from #2 after his 3 year old debut. The lack of adequate preparation for that race will most likely compromise his Derby chances.

8) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. The Tampa Bay Derby was a paid workout being run with an inverted pace much like a turf race. That can be a very good fitness builder but word is that he will train up to the Derby. I’m going to drop him from #4 until his schedule is confirmed.

9) Agate Road - Stamina and plenty of foundation. Good effort in his first dirt try in Sam F. Davis. Had a fast pace to close into but could not touch winner. I decided to drop this horse down from #5 after his last workout. After holding his own working with Fierceness February 23rd, he was clearly outworked by maiden winner Antiquarian.

10) Track Phantom - Brilliance but can he sit off a horse? Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance. Solid performance in Risen Star.

11) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Workmanlike win in Smarty Jones and solid performance in Risen Star.

12) Timberlake - Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree with quality in tail-female line. Another horse taking the 2 prep route to the Derby. He had 5 published works for his Rebel debut, none longer than 5 furlongs and no gate drills. Inadequate preparation leads to an uninspired performance.

13) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects. Seems like the rail was the place to be on the muddy sealed surface for the Southwest and he got a perfect trip around the track.

14) Tuscan Sky - Stamina and tactical speed. Impressive win in the slop vs Nash in essentially a N1x match race. One to watch.