2025 Kentucky Derby preview race - The Swale Stakes
The 7 furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park Saturday, February 1st , is, in my opinion, the most intriguing race to date on the road to the Derby.
Notwithstanding the fact that no Derby points are available, this race features two colts that I think have what it takes to be serious Derby horses. (see Steve Haskin’s excellent blog on this issue)
The first colt is Gunmetal.
He is by Gun Runner out of the Speightstown mare Classy Dancer and trained by Brad Cox. Gunmetal sold at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for $410K and is owned by the partnership of Winstar, China Horse Club and Sienna Farm.
This colt has only one start but his maiden win at the Fair Grounds showed both Brilliance and tenacity. There was a 7.25 length separation between the 2nd and 3rd place finishers and a 4.75 length separation between the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the field of ten.
This colt started breezing back in mid-May last year and was training regularly until early July. They stopped on him and his work schedule resumed in early October. Brad Cox knows how to develop a colt for the rigors of the Derby. Leading up to his first race Cox put a series of stiff works into the colt so he was primed for a good effort, and he did not disappoint. If you watch his work from January 19th with stablemate Rapture, a colt who just broke his maiden at Oaklawn in impressive fashion and earned TDN Rising Star status in the process, one can see Rapture’s rider aggressively coaxing him to keep pace with Gunmetal, whose rider is still as a statue. And, by the way, Rapture, by Uncle Mo, has a serious stamina laden pedigree saturated with Secretariat influence that puts him on my Derby radar.
Gunmetal has a decent amount of stamina influence in his pedigree, at least enough to generate a rating from my analysis, but not as much as the next colt, Grayscale.
Grayscale is by Frosted out of the Into Mischief mare Petunia and trained by Saffie Joseph. Grayscale sold at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for $240K and is owned by Bob Edwards’ E Five Racing.
This colt has only one start at Gulfstream Park but was impressive. He showed Brilliance while winning by 4.5 lengths with 5.75 lengths of separation between the 2nd place and 3rd place finishers in the field on nine. Word was out as he went off odds-on at $0.30 to the $1.
Saffie Joseph put a series of really stiff works into the colt, and he was ready for his debut. Joseph has been winning some big races lately and by what I have observed of his training methods for his dirt horses, he may be ready to ascend to Derby glory.
Grayscale has a strong stamina-oriented pedigree with beautifully balanced influences coming from his dam.
The issue for me in this race is whether Greyscale is coming into this event 100%. His penultimate work in company was workmanlike but not terribly impressive. And between that work and his final work there was a gap of 14 days.
I love the progression these horses are making. Both are Brilliant colts with stamina-oriented pedigrees whose trainers are plotting a course that will allow that speed work to build a foundation that will accelerate their development.
We will certainly learn more on Saturday.
