Kentucky Derby 2025 Rankings - February
This post represents my first attempt at identifying the most likely winners of the Derby. I would typically exclude horses that have not won going 2-turns against winners but have dropped that standard in this ranking. The horses ranked outside the top 10 are worthy of mention but the approach the trainer is taking in preparing them for the Derby will likely compromise their chances. (see The mistake that Bob Baffert does not make)
1) Citizen Bull - The 2 year old champ by Into Mischief trained by Bob Baffert makes a solid 3 year old debut. Enough said.
2) River Thames - This N.Y. bred colt by Maclean’s Music cost $200K at the Saratoga August sale and is trained by Todd Pletcher. He is 2-for-2 winning both races impressively, his last a 1-turn mile race. That race, an Allowance Optional Claiming event, was very impressive. He sat in 2nd against the rail less than a length off the pace setter while being pressed from the outside. He even dropped back about a length off that rival around the far turn but then rallied up the rail to assert himself and draw away for an easy 6.50 length win. That was a nice display of courage and competitive spirit. His pedigree is beautifully balanced on his dam’s side and presents a nice synergy between sire and dam. It doesn’t hurt that his dam, Proportionality, brings a Belmont winner and Derby winner close up in her pedigree. And her sire, Cigar Mile winner Discreet Cat, was one of the most athletic horses I ever saw in person. This colt is fast and seems to possess the stamina influence that will allow him to make his stakes debut going 2-turns a natural progression.
3) Sandman - By Tapit and trained by Mark Casse, this colt is loaded with stamina influence. He is a half to G3, Chilukki Stakes winner, She Can’t Sing. He will not lose the Derby because of distance or lack of seasoning. Unfortunate break in Southwest Stakes may have cost him the race. The challenge for him going forward is his lack of tactical speed.
4) John Hancock - By Constitution and aptly named, he is a half to G1, Ashland Stakes winner, Speech, and is trained by Brad Cox. This colt just won the Sam F. Davis Stakes against a much more seasoned rival after only a debut maiden win going 6 furlongs. And he did it with grit and determination as that rival, Owen Almighty, passed him in deep stretch on his outside. This horse has speed and a nice amount of stamina influence from his dam. If he has Flavian Prat too, watch out. Prat is the best rider in the country and showed why in the stretch run of this race.
5) Owen Almighty - By Speightstown, his dam, Tempers Rising, was a G2 stakes placed runner in the Fair Grounds Oaks. He is trained by Brian Lynch. He is tactical and has a decent amount of stamina influence coming from his dam with some synergy between sire and dam. He certainly gave a good account of himself in his first 2-turn test in the Sam F. Davis.
6) Vassimo - By Nyquist, his dam, Bsharpsonata, was a G1 stakes placed runner in the Ashland Stakes and winner of the G2 Davona Dale stakes. He is trained by Todd Pletcher. This colt is 2-for-2 winning his last race at Tampa in an Allowance Optional Claimer going 2-turns. Pedigree is solid with some stamina influence and synergy between sire and dam. Next stop is the Risen Star.
7) Captain Cook - By Practical Joke, his dam, Pow Wow Wow, is G2 stakes placed going 7 furlongs. He is trained by Rick Dutrow. Nice win going 9 furlongs in the Withers stakes. A little lite on pedigree but so far, so good.
8) Burnham Square - By Liam’s Map, his dam, Linda, won the G2 Mrs. Revere stakes on turf. He is trained by Ian Wilkes. Nice win in the Holy Bull stakes. Not too impressed with his pedigree and he does seem to emulate his dam with a bit of “turfy” action, although that can be an asset at Churchill. He is also 2-for-2 with the addition of blinkers and it’s hard to find fault with that fact.
9) Barnes - By Into Mischief and trained by Bob Baffert this horse has a pedigree profile very similar to Citizen Bull. The major difference is that his owner paid a lot more. Should make his 2-turn stakes debut shortly and I anticipate moving him up after that performance.
10) Rapture - By Uncle Mo and trained by Brad Cox, this colt just broke his maiden going 2-turns and won by an impressive 6.50 lengths. Before that race, he finished a close second to Vassimo going a 1-turn mile where there was 12.75 length separation between the top two and the show horse. This horse has a lot of Secretariat influence through his dam with a good amount of stamina influence and some synergy between sire and dam.
11) First Resort - By Uncle Mo, bred by Godolphin and trained by Eoin Harty. This horse won the G2 KY Jockey Club stakes at Churchill in November going 8.5 furlongs and beat Jonathan’s Way in the process. Dam, Fair Maiden, is a G1 winner of the 7 furlong La Brea stakes. This horse has enough pedigree to make him an interesting prospect. With only 4 works to date in preparation for his 3 year old debut, I will reserve final judgement for now.
12) Jonathan’s Way - By Vekoma and trained by Phil Bauer. Winner of the G2, Iroquois Stakes going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in September. Not overly impressed with his pedigree. Making 3 year old debut in Risen Star after a 6 work breeze tab, none over 5 furlongs. Ridiculous.
13) East Avenue - By Medaglia Doro, bred by Godolphin and trained by Brendan Walsh. Winner of G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in October going 8.5 furlongs. Not overly impressed with his pedigree. Making 3 year old debut in Risen Star after a 6 work breeze tab, none over 5 furlongs. Ridiculous.
14) Sovereignty - By Into Mischief, bred by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott. Winner of G3 Street Sense stakes at Churchill in October going 8.5 furlongs. With only 3 works to date in preparation for his 3 year old debut, I will reserve final judgement for now.
