Kentucky Derby 2024 Selections
My intention here is to simply focus on the 5 horses I feel have the highest probability of winning the race. To read my opinion on most contenders see the April Rankings. I would like to mention that Endlessly was terrible in his 4/20 work and I would be surprised if he starts in the Derby. The pace will most likely come from Fierceness, Track Phantom, Dornoch, Just a Touch and Encino. I would not be surprised to see any of those giving Fierceness some real pace competition deep into the race.
If I had to go outside my top five I would include Encino and Just Steel. The dam of Encino is out of Bedazzle, the dam of Street Sense. And Just Steel has more stamina influence in his pedigree than most starters and he is the iron horse (with some carbon added) of this field.
Just a Touch has been getting a lot of attention and ran a very good race in the Blue Grass. I’ve heard opinions that Mage and Justify each won the Derby off just 3 starts so that issue has been minimized. The problem from my perspective is not so much the 3 starts as the stamina influence in his pedigree does not seem as strong as those Derby winners.
Main Contenders
Sierra Leone - Rock solid penultimate work.
Catching Freedom - With 6 weeks between races his penultimate work was critically important. Went in company with Castlewarden, a 4 yo full sib to Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River. Went 5f in 1:00.80 galloping out 6f in 1:13.20 and 7f in 1:26.20. Mission accomplished.
Honor Marie - He is the pedigree play. I have questioned Beckman’s training approach as too soft and then I heard this horse would only have 3 works with 6 weeks between starts. This seemed to confirm my concerns that this horse would not be at his peak. Well, his final work was a 5f breeze in company with a stakes-placed sprinter and he was on top of his workmate right from the get-go. It was astonishing that a horse that shows no tactical speed in his races could match strides with a sprinter right from the start under no urging and proceed to leave his workmate in the dust. The strong time of 5f in 59.20 galloping out 6f in 1:12.60 should prime him for a forward move from his last race.
Fierceness - His penultimate work strikes me as an optical illusion somewhat like the Florida Derby. In both cases he had little competition. His workmate was Agate Road, a horse who has done his best running on turf. Agate Road has little natural speed and is currently way off his best form so he was a sacrificial lamb not capable of offering any meaningful resistance. If Pletcher is correct and this horse was compromised in the Holy Bull because of a little adversity encountered at the start, this horse’s competitive spirit is very much an open question. If any horse ever had an excuse at the start of a race it was Seattle Slew in the 1977 Derby. Fierceness backers may want to view the start of that race to see what competitive spirit looks like.
Forever Young - I have no idea what to make of his penultimate work. 4f in 55.20 going out 6f in 1:19.60 with a final quarter in 24.40. What??? Maybe his last work will make sense to the Western mind.
