Kentucky Derby 2024 Rankings - April
Where is the pace coming from in this Derby?
Any horse that has shown solid early pace is compromised with the exception of Track Phantom and he has a 6 week gap to race day with a trainer who tends toward light works.
Hades may not get into the race. No More Time is taking an 8 week vacation. Dornoch may be going in the wrong direction as a result of inadequate preparation for his 3 year old debut and Just a Touch has 1 win to his credit sprinting over a sloppy track.
I have ranked Fierceness 4th because I think he may be vulnerable at the Derby distance. But if he gets out of the gate relatively clean and the pace is moderate, the distance should be a non-issue.
1) Sierra Leone - $2.3M Saratoga purchase by top sire and GI winning dam. 2nd dam also multiple GSW. Does not check all the boxes for me pedigree wise but you cannot deny the performance. This horse may not be very tactical but he is a very efficient mover.
2) Catching Freedom - Stamina. Consistent performer who will not lose this race because he lacks fitness. See Louisiana Derby Recap
3) Honor Marie - Stamina. Will relish classic distance and loves the track. He should move forward but with 6 weeks between starts, no confidence as yet that Beckman will train him aggressively enough to have him at his peak.
4) Fierceness - See Florida Derby Recap
5) Forever Young - This horse, like Hades, has a nice synergy between sire and dam. Undefeated colt made nice progression in UAE Derby but has to buck the Dubai trend.
6) Endlessly - Rock solid stamina oriented pedigree. This horse has a solid foundation with four races as a 2 year old, all on turf at a mile. Although he has had only two prep races, the fact that his 3 year old debut was made on a synthetic surface in a non-graded stakes race is in no way equivalent to the negative trend these days of two prep races with a first start preceded by a light breeze schedule in preparation for a graded stakes race going 2 turns on dirt. It’s common knowledge that some horses that excel on a synthetic surface take to the Churchill dirt. If he does he could win at a price.
7) Hades - He is much better than his Florida Derby performance. Lopez had to check a bit going into the first turn but no major trouble. He was locked onto the rail around the turn and may have resented the kickback. Entered in the Lexington in an attempt to qualify for Derby. If he wins impressively he could be a menacing pace presence in Derby.
8) Track Phantom - Tactical speed and consistent performer. Has some quality on bottom of pedigree but don’t see enough stamina influence for him to be at his best at classic distance.
9) Stronghold - Gutsy win in Santa Anita Derby. This horse is competitive and has given a good account of himself against some talented runners from the Baffert barn. He should be dead fit for the Derby. Dam placed in Santa Anita Oaks but on balance do not see enough stamina infuence in pedigree to recommend.
10) Resilience - This horse gave a very good account of himself jumping into the Risen Star off a maiden win. His performance in the Wood continues to flatter Fair Grounds form. He will be fit for Derby and he has some pedigree power but I don’t see enough stamina influence in pedigree to recommend.
11) Just Steel - Aptly named, he has started 11 times. Talk about old school: Hail to the Coach! This guy has more stamina influence than a lot of these and we know fitness is not an issue.
12) Just a Touch - His pedigree looks like a haphazard attempt to emphasize inbreeding with no particular design in mind. Maybe the hope was that something might click. By Justify out of a Tapit mare this pedigree would typically elicit praise like “regally bred”. While he does have some pedigree power and his dam is a graded stakes winner, I don’t see enough stamina influence. Couple that with being so lightly raced and he is hard to recommend.
13) Mystik Dan - Has some Stamina influence on bottom of pedigree but not quite enough for me to be too excited about his prospects.
14) Dornoch - Stamina and tactical speed. Full sib to Mage. Given his performance in the Blue Grass, he appears to be another victim of inadequate preparation for a 3 year old debut in a 2 turn, graded stakes race on dirt.
15) No More Time - Stamina and tactical speed. The Tampa Bay Derby was a paid workout being run with an inverted pace much like a turf race. That can be a very good fitness builder but since he will be training up to the Derby I give him little chance.
16) Domestic Product - Nothing outstanding in his pedigree that grabs my attention but this horse is competitive. Pace in Tampa Bay Derby favored the tactical, high quality, No More Time yet this horse ran him down. With what appears to be more aggressive training methods this year, I suspected Chad Brown may be making a fundamental change in his approach. Then he decides to train this horse up to the race. Change? Maybe not.
