Kentucky Derby 2025 Rankings - April
1) Journalism - By Curlin, this $825K FT Saratoga purchase is trained by Michael McCarthy. This colt reminds me of the BC Classic winning son of Curlin, Vino Rosso. Both have similar pedigree profiles and both have won by grinding down their competition. Overcame adversity and a stubborn foe in Baeza to win SA Derby.
2) Luxor Cafe - Kentucky bred colt by American Pharoah represents Japan. He is a full to multiple G1 winner in Japan, Cafe Pharoah. Exceptional final prep going 2-turns clockwise showing an explosive turn-of-foot.
3) Sandman - By Tapit and trained by Mark Casse, this colt is loaded with stamina influence. He is a half to G3, Chilukki Stakes winner, She Can’t Sing. He will not lose the Derby because of distance or lack of seasoning. What a difference Jose Ortiz made in the AR Derby win. Ortiz got into position relatively early following the move of Coal Front on the far turn and the rest was history.
4) Baeza - By McKinzie and trained by John Shirreffs, this colt is out of the mare Puca. He is a half to Mage and Dornoch. Gave Journalism all he wanted. If he makes the field he can be formidable.
5) Grande - By Curlin and trained by Todd Pletcher, this colt ran a top race to finish 2nd in the Wood. In only his 3rd start, this colt was taken out of his familiar running style and lost substantial ground through the race. Along with Baeza, this colt has plenty of pure stamina influence coming from the bottom of his pedigree.
6) Tappan Street - By Into Mischief out of a Grade 2 stakes placed dam, this $1M FT Saratoga purchase is trained by Brad Cox. Solid win in FL Derby but he will have to make a meaningful move forward off that race.
7) Sovereignty - By Into Mischief, bred by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott. Winner of G3 Street Sense stakes at Churchill in October going 8.5 furlongs. I suspected he would regress in the FL Derby off of lite preparation for his 3 year old debut. He is proven at Churchill but will need to improve a good deal just to overcome his running style.
8) East Avenue - By Medaglia Doro, bred by Godolphin and trained by Brendan Walsh. Winner of G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in October going 8.5 furlongs. Not overly impressed with his pedigree. Got back on track in Blue Grass after a terrible 3 year old debut off of lite preparation. Not an easy feat to have a speed horse get blown out off of inadequate preparation and then turn things around in the next start. Credit to Walsh for the achievement.
9) Burnham Square - By Liam’s Map, his dam, Linda, won the G2 Mrs. Revere stakes on turf. He is trained by Ian Wilkes. Not too impressed with his pedigree and he does seem to emulate his dam with a bit of “turfy” action, although that can be an asset at Churchill. Solid win in Blue Grass but his deep closing style will be hard to overcome.
10) River Thames - This N.Y. bred colt by Maclean’s Music cost $200K at the Saratoga August sale and is trained by Todd Pletcher. His pedigree is beautifully balanced on his dam’s side and presents a nice synergy between sire and dam. It doesn’t hurt that his dam, Proportionality, brings a Belmont winner and Derby winner close up in her pedigree. And her sire, Cigar Mile winner Discreet Cat, was one of the most athletic horses I ever saw in person. This colt ran a solid race in the Blue Grass but after a 5 week gap between races, I expected more improvement. Pletcher, not known for speed works, may have been too soft on this colt in his training.
11) Coal Battle - By Coal Front and trained by Lonnie Briley. Briley mentioned he would have liked to get an additional work into him before the AR Derby but maybe we have seen the best of this colt.
12) Citizen Bull - The 2 year old champ by Into Mischief trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert may regret giving this colt 2 months between races. This is always a high risk strategy with a speed horse but if anyone could pull it off it is Baffert. While it appeared on paper he was trained hard, it is worth noting there were no gate works and no 7 furlong breezes.
