Kentucky Derby 2025 Rankings - March
1) Citizen Bull - The 2 year old champ by Into Mischief trained by Bob Baffert makes a solid 3 year old debut. Showdown with Journalism in SA Derby awaits.
2) Journalism - By Curlin, this $825K FT Saratoga purchase is trained by Michael McCarthy. This colt reminds me of the BC Classic winning son of Curlin, Vino Rosso. Both have similar pedigree profiles and both have won by grinding down their competition. And it’s in this respect I see this colt as vulnerable. Although he is more tactical than Vino Rosso, he has yet to run strong early and mid-race pace figures. If forced out of his comfort zone by a high quality speed horse, can he reproduce his top speed figure? Yes, he caught Barnes. But he had a seasoning advantage over that colt. Chasing Citizen Bull in the SA Derby may reveal more.
3) Barnes - By Into Mischief and trained by Bob Baffert this horse has a pedigree profile very similar to Citizen Bull. The major difference is that his owner paid a lot more. Great race in his first 2-turn attempt. If he improves off that effort he will be a handful.
4) River Thames - This N.Y. bred colt by Maclean’s Music cost $200K at the Saratoga August sale and is trained by Todd Pletcher. His pedigree is beautifully balanced on his dam’s side and presents a nice synergy between sire and dam. It doesn’t hurt that his dam, Proportionality, brings a Belmont winner and Derby winner close up in her pedigree. And her sire, Cigar Mile winner Discreet Cat, was one of the most athletic horses I ever saw in person. Ran a very good race in his first 2-turn attempt. His mid-race pace fig was excellent and his late race pace fig was good. He may have won the race if he did not lose focus in deep stretch. My impression is that this colt has not figured it out yet. In his last 2 starts he seems hesitant to pass his pace rival and has to be strongly encouraged to do so. If the light bulb goes on, he has all the tools to be formidable.
5) Coal Battle - By Coal Front and trained by Lonnie Briley, this colt is an undefeated 5-for-5 on dirt, including two wet, sealed surfaces. No colt in this crop has shown the versatility he has. He can win from anywhere and has the mental conditioning to know that is exactly what he is supposed to do. The Rebel was a beautiful example of what a young race horse looks like when everything comes together. He was tactical, yet tractable, and when called upon, showed an electric turn-of-foot on the far turn. Beautiful! He may not have the raw talent and flashy pedigree of some of these, but he has enough pedigree power to be interesting and a strong will to win. That’s a potent combination. I only hope he does not go straight to the Derby off his Rebel win.
6) Owen Almighty - By Speightstown, his dam, Tempers Rising, was a G2 stakes placed runner in the Fair Grounds Oaks. He is trained by Brian Lynch. He is tactical and has a decent amount of stamina influence coming from his dam with some synergy between sire and dam.
7) John Hancock - By Constitution and aptly named, he is a half to G1, Ashland Stakes winner, Speech, and is trained by Brad Cox. This colt just won the Sam F. Davis Stakes against a much more seasoned rival after only a debut maiden win going 6 furlongs. And he did it with grit and determination as that rival, Owen Almighty, passed him in deep stretch on his outside. This horse has speed and a nice amount of stamina influence from his dam. If he has Flavian Prat too, watch out. Prat is the best rider in the country and showed why in the stretch run of this race.
8) Sandman - By Tapit and trained by Mark Casse, this colt is loaded with stamina influence. He is a half to G3, Chilukki Stakes winner, She Can’t Sing. He will not lose the Derby because of distance or lack of seasoning.
9) Captain Cook - By Practical Joke, his dam, Pow Wow Wow, is G2 stakes placed going 7 furlongs. He is trained by Rick Dutrow. Nice win going 9 furlongs in the Withers stakes. A little lite on pedigree but so far, so good.
10) Tappan Street - By Into Mischief out of a Grade 2 stakes placed dam, this $1M FT Saratoga purchase is trained by Brad Cox. This colt ran a very good race in the Holy Bull making only his 2nd start coming off a 7 furlong maiden win.
11) Sovereignty - By Into Mischief, bred by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott. Winner of G3 Street Sense stakes at Churchill in October going 8.5 furlongs. Although he ran a very good race in the FOY, I think he is being overrated off that effort. Sitting far back off a strong pace played to his running style. In addition, he came into this race off a 4 month layoff with a mere 6 works, none over 5 furlongs. Making a 3 year old debut going 2-turns in a graded stakes off such a light training regimen is not a method that is replete with success. After such a game effort preceded by dubious preparation, I would not be surprised to see a regression in his next race.
12) Vassimo - By Nyquist, his dam, Bsharpsonata, was a G1 stakes placed runner in the Ashland Stakes and winner of the G2 Davona Dale stakes. He is trained by Todd Pletcher. Pedigree is solid with some stamina influence and synergy between sire and dam.
