Florida Derby 2024 Recap

Here is a pithy summation of the performance of Fierceness:

Colt with absolute Brilliance sets moderate fractions on an uncontested lead with his main competitor never involved and wins with devastating ease.

If you examine the fractions from the Ghostzapper Stakes for older horses, which was run as race 7, and the Gulfstream Park Oaks for 3 year old fillies, which was the last dirt race before the Florida Derby and run as race 11, it is evident that the track was quicker as the day progressed. The speed held in the Ghostzapper and although Power Squeeze ran down Ways and Means, the latter was part of the pace most of the race and held well.

All that is to say that the pace in both of these races was reasonable and not unrealistically fast.

The 3/4 time in the Ghostzapper was 1:12.41 and the same split in the Oaks was 1:11.66. This suggests the track was getting faster through the day.

Fierceness ran a 3/4 split in 1.11.31 which is reasonable when compared to the Oaks.

The main competition for Fierceness was not the talented Hades, who after a shaky start never ran a lick, but Catalytic. Catalytic was the main pace rival and ran the best race of all other competitors. Catalytic has one win to his credit and came into this race with one 6 furlong prep in which he finished 2nd coming from off the pace. Not exactly premium competition.

I have compared Fierceness to Life is Good. I think he has that level of Brilliance. And like Life is Good, I suspect Fierceness will not be at his best at Classic distances. But even if an enormous talent is not at their best under specific conditions, it does not necessarily follow that they cannot win.

Does anyone doubt that Life is Good wins the Breeders Cup Classic if anyone other than Flightline is chasing him?

This final prep race will serve Fierceness well. And if he encounters a moderate pace in the Derby and is tactical enough to be in the race from the opening bell, watch out.

But this race was not a test. This race was a brilliant workout under ideal conditions with no accomplished competitor eyeballing Fierceness under a taxing pace.

It is unlikely the conditions in the Florida Derby will hold in his next race.