Louisiana Derby 2024 Recap
This race was a solid final prep for both Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. In evaluating the race I wanted to see how it measured up to the New Orleans Classic, a One and One Eighth mile race for older horses earlier on the card.
The NOC was won by Red Route One. Although he was not a top-tier 3 year old, he did give a decent account of himself in the Arkansas Derby and Preakness last year.
To have some point of comparison between the NOC and Louisiana Derby I wanted to compare the final times of each race. To do that I decided to extrapolate an additional sixteenth of a mile from the time it took Red Route One to run his final eighth of a mile.
The final eighth in the NOC was run in 12.97 seconds. Red Route One was 2.5 lengths behind at the eighth pole. That approximates a final eighth run in 12.47 seconds by Red Route One with an average of 6.235 seconds per sixteenth of a mile. The NOC was run in 1:49.14. Adding 6.235 seconds to that time yields an extrapolated time of 1:55.375 for the NOC. The Louisiana Derby was run in 1:56.16.
The extrapolated time of the NOC was faster by 0.785 seconds, which equates to approximately 3.5 to 4 lengths. Considering Red Route One saved all the ground getting a rail trip around the far turn and both Honor Marie and Catching Freedom were wide on the far turn and spun 7 and 8 paths wide entering the stretch, both these horses gave a solid performance that stands up to comparison with older stakes horses on the card.
In evaluating the performance of Catching Freedom against Honor Marie I would point out that Catching Freedom had 2 advantages. First, I believe he had a fitness advantage. He has been in constant training since his debut October 1st. Honor Marie, by comparison, was coming off an 84 day layoff prior to the Risen Star and given his sparse training regimen, could in no way have been adequately prepared for that race. Second, Catching Freedom had Flavian Prat. If anyone thinks that made no difference watch him in the stretch drive vs Ben Curtis and tell me who you would want riding your horse.
Going forward Catching Freedom looks like a genuine Derby horse. He has a stamina oriented pedigree, is a consistent performer and he should be dead fit by staying in training from his 2 year old campaign thereby avoiding the 2 race Derby prep schedule compromising many of his competitors.
Honor Marie has the pedigree to run all day and likes the Churchill surface. He has a right to move forward but will he? With 6 weeks to the Derby, I have yet to see evidence that his trainer will be aggressive enough with his training to get him 100% fit for the Derby.
